Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 44,838
2 South Dakota 39,613
3 Louisiana 38,963
4 Mississippi 37,673
5 Alabama 35,828
6 Florida 35,503
7 Iowa 35,005
8 Tennessee 33,986
9 Arkansas 33,665
10 Wisconsin 33,014
11 South Carolina 32,310
12 Arizona 32,141
13 Idaho 31,292
14 Nebraska 31,176
15 Georgia 31,044
16 Utah 30,574
17 Texas 30,550
18 Nevada 29,931
19 Illinois 28,422
20 Oklahoma 28,015
21 Rhode Island 27,491
22 Missouri 27,048
23 Kansas 26,189
24 New York 25,354
25 New Jersey 25,332
26 Delaware 24,004
27 North Carolina 23,932
28 District of Columbia 23,376
29 Montana 23,220
30 Indiana 22,997
31 Maryland 22,779
32 California 22,528
33 Minnesota 22,456
34 Massachusetts 21,206
35 Kentucky 20,840
36 Virginia 19,772
37 New Mexico 18,463
38 Puerto Rico 18,420
39 Connecticut 18,195
40 Alaska 17,167
41 Wyoming 17,015
42 Michigan 16,807
43 Ohio 16,083
44 Colorado 15,497
45 Pennsylvania 14,946
46 Washington 13,739
47 West Virginia 11,569
48 Hawaii 10,155
49 Oregon 9,592
50 New Hampshire 7,293
51 Maine 4,483
52 Vermont 3,158

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 956
2 Wisconsin 948
3 South Dakota 668
4 Montana 622
5 Idaho 527
6 Wyoming 474
7 Rhode Island 450
8 Kansas 409
9 Nebraska 385
10 Utah 377
11 Tennessee 340
12 Iowa 328
13 New Mexico 306
14 Oklahoma 299
15 Illinois 296
16 Alaska 284
17 Michigan 284
18 Arkansas 279
19 Kentucky 266
20 Indiana 238
21 Minnesota 223
22 Mississippi 211
23 Missouri 209
24 Alabama 207
25 Colorado 199
26 Nevada 196
27 Texas 194
28 Connecticut 190
29 Ohio 177
30 Louisiana 162
31 Puerto Rico 160
32 North Carolina 155
33 South Carolina 153
34 Arizona 128
35 Massachusetts 121
36 West Virginia 121
37 New Jersey 120
38 Pennsylvania 119
39 Florida 116
40 Georgia 110
41 Virginia 102
42 California 99
43 Washington 97
44 Delaware 96
45 Maryland 86
46 Oregon 73
47 New York 72
48 District of Columbia 60
49 New Hampshire 54
50 Hawaii 46
51 Maine 21
52 Vermont 18

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,828
2 New York 1,696
3 Massachusetts 1,418
4 Connecticut 1,280
5 Louisiana 1,245
6 Rhode Island 1,103
7 Mississippi 1,082
8 District of Columbia 909
9 Arizona 804
10 Illinois 759
11 Florida 754
12 Michigan 742
13 South Carolina 720
14 Georgia 708
15 Delaware 688
16 Pennsylvania 674
17 Maryland 671
18 Texas 611
19 Indiana 597
20 Arkansas 580
21 Alabama 576
22 Nevada 563
23 North Dakota 560
24 Iowa 505
25 New Mexico 453
26 Ohio 440
27 Missouri 436
28 California 435
29 Tennessee 431
30 Minnesota 413
31 Virginia 411
32 North Carolina 387
33 Colorado 385
34 South Dakota 376
35 New Hampshire 344
36 Kansas 326
37 Kentucky 318
38 Washington 313
39 Idaho 308
40 Oklahoma 305
41 Nebraska 302
42 Wisconsin 293
43 Montana 258
44 Puerto Rico 242
45 West Virginia 230
46 Utah 174
47 Oregon 151
48 Hawaii 142
49 Maine 108
50 Wyoming 105
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 87

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kansas 10
2 Montana 10
3 North Dakota 7
4 Iowa 6
5 Wisconsin 6
6 Arkansas 5
7 Mississippi 5
8 Rhode Island 5
9 Indiana 4
10 Nebraska 4
11 Florida 3
12 Hawaii 3
13 Idaho 3
14 Illinois 3
15 Kentucky 3
16 Michigan 3
17 North Carolina 3
18 Oklahoma 3
19 South Carolina 3
20 South Dakota 3
21 Tennessee 3
22 Virginia 3
23 Alabama 2
24 Connecticut 2
25 Louisiana 2
26 Massachusetts 2
27 Minnesota 2
28 Nevada 2
29 New Mexico 2
30 Ohio 2
31 Texas 2
32 West Virginia 2
33 Wyoming 2
34 Arizona 1
35 California 1
36 Colorado 1
37 Delaware 1
38 Georgia 1
39 Maryland 1
40 Missouri 1
41 New Jersey 1
42 Oregon 1
43 Pennsylvania 1
44 Utah 1
45 Washington 1
46 Alaska 0
47 District of Columbia 0
48 Maine 0
49 New Hampshire 0
50 New York 0
51 Puerto Rico 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 170,762 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 159,072 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 154,555 3 99
Lafayette Florida 150,202 4 99
Lake Tennessee 139,111 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 46,547 260 91
Richland South Carolina 40,398 403 87
York South Carolina 22,624 1434 54
Orange California 18,720 1772 43
Pierce Washington 11,696 2447 22

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 1 99
Hancock Georgia 5,203 2 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 637 809 74
Davidson Tennessee 473 1147 63
Orange California 448 1211 61
York South Carolina 342 1506 52
Pierce Washington 269 1739 44

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons